Past President Lyn McGowan's message in President Roger's absence:
If you’re suffering whiplash from the weeks of continuous “on again-off again” policy changes coming from our neighbour to the south, you’re definitely not alone. In the midst of “doomscrolling” I came across a report from the World Economic Forum that I missed when it was released last month.
First – a little background: The World Economic Forum (“WEF”) is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation, established in 1971 as an independent, impartial not-for-profit foundation whose mission is to bring together political, business, academic, civil society and other leaders to establish trust and build initiatives for cooperation and progress, to improve the state of the world. Sounds a lot like what we aspire to in Rotary, doesn’t it?
Each year, the WEF conducts a survey, the Global Risks Perception Survey (“GRPS”) and produces a report on the top current global risks and the aggregate perception of the future risk profile, short-term (2 year) and long-term (10 year). Summarized, it looks like this:
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CURRENT HIGHEST RISKS
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2027 OUTLOOK
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2035 OUTLOOK
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1
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State-based armed conflict
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Misinformation and disinformation
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Extreme weather events
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2
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Extreme weather events
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Extreme weather events
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Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
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3
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Geoeconomic confrontation
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State-based armed conflict
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Critical change to Earth systems
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4
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Misinformation and disinformation
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Societal polarization
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Natural resource shortages
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5
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Societal polarization
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Cyber espionage and warfare
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Misinformation and disinformation
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6
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Economic downturn
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Pollution
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Adverse outcomes of AI technologies
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7
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Critical change to Earth systems
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Inequality
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Inequality
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8
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Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment
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Involuntary migration or displacement
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Societal polarization
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9
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Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedom
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Geoeconomic confrontation
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Cyber espionage and warfare
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10
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Inequality
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Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment
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Pollution
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Looks like the wars are expected to be pretty much over by 2027, and geoeconomic confrontation to have abated but misinformation/disinformation is set to become the foremost global risk. Coupled with societal polarization, they project the world is in for a really rough ride on the societal front.
So, what’s to be done? Is there any prescription to counteract these threats to social cohesion? The WEF sets out 3 things:
- Foster multilateralism – support and reinforce existing multilateral institutions, wherever feasible
- Develop strategic relationships – expand the role of regional organizations in managing tensions and fostering cooperation
- Diversify supply chains – strengthen economic resilience
That’s good advice for governments, but what can we as individuals and Rotarians, do? I keep coming back to the Four Way Test –
First – Is it the truth? We can be hypervigilant about spreading misinformation. I intend to verify my facts with a trusted source before I “like” or “share” or repeat anything.
Second – Is it fair to all concerned? We can support our friends and neighbours, without judging. Some people are choosing to only buy local; others are not in a position to be as categorical. I don’t know everyone’s situation, so I should not judge their actions; I am only responsible for my own.
Third – Will it build good will and better friendships? I have to keep reminding myself of who is and isn’t responsible for the insults and turmoil. In my doomscrolling I have read so many posts from friendly folks to the south, expressing dismay and support, assuring us of their continued friendship. I don’t hold them responsible and will be friendly and supportive in return, but will still buy local.
Fourth – Will it be beneficial to all concerned? Some of the policies emanating from “down south” are going to hurt everyone. There’s nothing I can do about that. All I can do, is do my best to support our friends and neighbours.
Fifth – Is it fun? Nope!
Roger’s Second Thought – My patience is like a gift card. Not sure how much is left on it but we can give it a try.
Lyn McGowan
Past President